ABER-RANT

From the Reference Guide to Epidemiology of the Federal Judicial Center’s Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, the principal reference for instructing US courts in regard to epidemiology. The Manual states: “…epidemiology cannot objectively prove causation; rather, causation is a judgment for epidemiologists and others interpreting the epidemiological data.” [6], and “.. the existence of some [associated] factors does not ensure that a causal relationship exists. Drawing causal inferences after finding an association and considering these factors requires judgment and searching analysis.” [7] and “ [w]hile the drawing of causal inferences is informed by scientific expertise, it is not a determination that is made by using scientific methodology .”. Thus, while epidemiologists insist that their discipline is a science, clearly it is not the solid experimental science that produces reliable causal connections to fuel new scientific discoveries, successful technological advances, and...

Although there is substantial evidence of the health benefits of moderate drinking, there has been a continued campaign on the part of many alcohol opponents to suppress or deny these findings. For instance, Harvard epidemiologist Carl Seltzer, a co-investigator on the Framingham study, found positive effects of moderate drinking on heart disease 25 years ago. Seltzer was denied permission to publish these results by the US National Heart and Lung Institute on the grounds that an article about such results would be “scientifically misleading and socially undesirable in view of the major problem of alcoholism that already exists in the country.” (C. Seltzer, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 1997 50: 627-629, “Conflicts of Interest” and “political science”)

Arnott once again raises the myth that smokers die prematurely; this is easily refuted.Allow me to give you an example of why these studies show misleading results Suppose that you were to compare the mortality of people who did their main grocery shop at a discount store, to the mortality of people who shopped at an expensive/high-end grocery store, You would most likely find that the people who shopped at the discount store died younger than those who shopped at the up-market store. You might (erroneously) conclude that it was the products being consumed that affected mortality, when in reality the two groups are not directly comparable, as people who shop at up-market stores tend to be wealthier and live longer anyway . This scenario explains why for example, cigar smokers appear to live longer than non-smokers. The reason being that cigar smokers are over represented in the most affluent echelons of society. Professor Peter Finch , when analysing Australian smoking mortality, fo...

If you wish to find out something about a particular population , and it is not feasible to test the whole population, then you may test a sample of that population providing that the sample is an accurate refection of the population. In order to get a valid sample one needs to select randomly across the the entire population. Something to be avoided is self-selection.; this is in fact the major flaw in virtually all drug trials, in that they ask for volunteers, and this leads to bias. You might be thinking What's wrong with using volunteers? Well, consider the following: Suppose you wished to ascertain the feeling of the general public towards the recent Olympic games. You might perhaps create a web-site asking people to complete a survey about the games. The flaw in the sample is here quite easy to spot. Only those who were interested in the games would volunteer, and therefore your sample would not reflect the the general population, some of whom must not be interested in...

It is a complete myth that smokers die prematurely smoking rarely kills male ever-smokers before 50 years of age and female ever-smokers before 55 years of age, and does so very rarely at earlier ages. While deaths attributed to smoking do occur much more frequently with increasing age, so too do deaths from other causes and it is not clear how the ever-smoker's age-increasing annual risk of death due to his or her smoking should be apportioned between smoking on the one hand and simply aging on the other. The anti-smoking movement's message that smoking kills has to be interpreted from the balanced perspective of not only how likely it is to do so; but of how likely it is that other causes will pre-empt that possibility by leading to death before it eventuates. For instance, while it may be a cause of concern to a 65 to 69 year old male ever-smoker, and to a 70 to 74 year old female ever-smoker to be told that they have a yearly chance of about 1 in 100 that their smoking wil...

I live in a small university town. I often chat with under-graduates and am constantly surprised to find that my old O-level grasp of their subject is usually as good as, if not better than, theirs. Why is that, when educational standards have never been higher?

Pro-active There is no such word as pro-active You can act or react , but you cannot pro-act You may be active or passive , but you can never be pro-active

The Scientific Scandal of Antismoking By J. R. Johnstone, PhD (Monash) and P.D.Finch, Emeritus Professor of Mathematical Statistics (Monash) Science is not always a neutral, disinterested search for knowledge, although it may often seem that way to the outsider. Sometimes the story can be very different. Smoking and health have been the subject of argument since tobacco was introduced to Europe in the sixteenth century. King James I was a pioneer antismoker. In 1604 he declared that smoking was "a custome lothsome to the eye, hatefull to the Nose, harmefull to the braine, dangerous to the Lungs, and in the blacke stinking fume thereof, neerest resembling the horrible Stigian smoke of the pit that is bottomelesse." But like many a politician since, he decided that taxing tobacco was a more sensible option than banning it. By the end of the century general opinion had changed. The Royal College of Physicians of London promoted smoking for its benefits to health ...

What is morally repugnant is a government that sets-up tax-avoidance schemes and then moans like fuck when people have the temerity to use them. A previous government removed the Inland revenue's duty to only collect that tax which was due ; instead it switched the burden onto the tax-payer. It would therefore seem that it is every citizen's legal duty to avoid tax.

euro crisis...simple solution get rid of the single currency and let sovereign governments re-value their currencies People wonder why in Britain we have a north-south economic divide...simple two different economic systems sharing a common currency, namely the pound...if a small region like England struggles HOW THE FUCK CAN IT WORK IN EUROPE YOU FUCKWITS

I haven't posted about fish-keeping before on this blog. So , I thought I'd describe the set-up in my two main tanks:- 4 ft cold/temperate tank One Ryukin (Miss )Piggy Malone( aka Doris) A Moor named Jet (juv male) An Oranda called Rocket (juv male) 6 baby apple snails planted with Amazon swords --------------------------------------------- 3 ft tropical tank 2 Bristlenoses Charley Farley(m) & Skitter (f) 4 Adult Apple Snails 8 neon tetras 2 Fire-Red Honey Dwarf Gourami: 6 Black Neon Tetra 2 Red Cherry Shrimp 2 Dwarf African Aquatic Frog Planted with Anubias & Amazon Swords ---------------------------------------------------- I shall add to this given time-constraints

In Gauderman et al. 1997 at pp.208-209 the authors stated: “The results from these analyses support previous findings that a major gene plays an important role in lung cancer risk. An additional finding not previously observed is that there is no apparent interaction between the putative lung cancer gene and smoking.” At p.177 the authors wrote: “[T]he flaws we found in the nicotine research literature are of such magnitude and occur in such a regular fashion that they demand an explanation. A partial list of the methodological shortcomings compiled in this book includes: I Systematic exclusion of subjects from statistical analyses Absence of saline control groups for injected drugs Result-biased selection of number of sessions to test manipulations Absence of statistical comparisons [...]“ Also, from the same book: “Thus, nicotine’s role in maintaining the smoking habit bears no similarity to the role played by genuinely addictive drugs such as heroin, barbiturates, alcohol or ot...

A friend of mine had to see a neurologist.....I report the gist of the consultation Consultant: you mustn't be around smokers Patient: I don't allow smoking in my house Consultant: Just being around smokers would be dangerous for you Patient: Well, as I said no one smokes in my house, or work, or car Consultant: SMOKERS ARE BAD FOR YOU WHETHER THEY'RE SMOKING or NOT !!! I kid you not...this is the sort of mediaeval superstition we are all up against .

The world financial crisis made a dent in sales of premium goods as Cuban cigars, while such smoking bans that each day are more and more spread worldwide are a real bane of the cigar industry. Habanos is trying to oppose the action by offering various lines of small cigars that can be smoked during a work break and also produce cigars specially created for women smokers. It was found that Cuba’s premium cigars dominate the world cigar market with 70% of all sales. However that market share excludes the United States as Cuba’s cigars are prohibited there in accordance with a decades-old trade embargo against the Communist island. The great domestic demand for lower-quality cigars, which are sold at very low price and are made from tobacco leaves grown elsewhere in the country, haven’t demonstrated the sign of slowing in spite of local smoking bans, which like many other laws, are not fully respected.

Bertrand Russell On Smoking The London Hospitals study was the first British study to investigate possible causes of the growing epidemic of lung cancer. It was published by Richard Doll and Bradford Hill in 1950. Bradford Hill was a statistician, and Richard Doll was a young doctor. In the study, several hundred lung cancer patients in London hospitals were questioned about their past smoking habits and other behaviours, to see whether any pattern emerged. Many years later, Sir Richard Doll wrote: By the time we had data on several hundred patients it was obvious that the principal difference between the patients with and without lung cancer was their smoking habits, and we had to make up our minds whether the association was due to chance, bias, confounding, or to cause and effect. The evidence that led us to conclude that it was due to the last (and which led me to give up smoking in 1949) is described in our first paper... (source) In fact, the results eventually showed that in 649...

A few scientists have long held the belief that human cancers might well be caused by bacteria. Not that many years ago doctors were surprised to learn that peptic ulcers and cancers of the gut might actually be caused by acid-resistant bacteria. Why were they surprised? TB a precursor to lung cancer used to be mainly a disease of non-smokers, the tobacco smoke having antiseptic properties, was thought to inhibit susceptibility to TB. In the 60's doctors became alarmed that, with the immense reduction in TB, lung cancer was on the increase in the smoking population. They jumped to the conclusion that cancer was caused by smoking. How they must be dismayed by recent studies that show that aspirin, another chemical which has bacteria-resistant properties, has been shown to inhibit human cancers.The evidence is there for all to see, bacteria cause a range of diseases in human-beings which lead to cancers. An aspirin a day, or 5 Player's Weights? Your choice, but I'm waiting...

His baton was a Malboro Red.......He'd hold an unlit cigarette an exceedingly long time, until it became fixed in the minds of his audience like a handgun. Then he'd make a grand production of striking a match and bring the flame to the cigarette tip. The next rounded phrase that fell from his mouth would be encased within a dollop of smoke. Then, when he flicked his ash---tap, tap--- everyone leaned forward and watched closely, as if Willie Mays were tapping his bat on the home plate. Something interesting was about to happen. At last, he dropped the burned match into the glass ashtray with a light plink , he delivered the punchline or came to the crucial point, and I was tempted to yell, "Bravo!" J.R.Moehringer

We are not living longer, we are just not dying younger Listen HERE